Archive for the ‘trade’ category

Opting-out of CETA: what does it mean for London?

May 2nd, 2012

Observing the debate last night on London "opting-out" of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the European Union, I had to wonder if some of the councillors understand international trade negotiations and how trade agreements are implemented.

After debating the issue, city council voted 10-5 to opt-out of CETA. This notion of municipalities "opting-out" of CETA is being advanced by the Council of Canadians, which celebrated its success after the council vote.

During the debate, Paul Van Meerbergen, Joe Fontana and Harold Usher were the strongest voices against the motion to opt-out. Stephen Orser also spoke against the motion. Both Van Meerbergen and Orser said that this motion would send a signal to businesses that London isn't open to trade. Usher argued that the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, of which he is a director, needs the city's support to advocate for the agreement to respect its seven principles.

Several councillors clearly do not trust the federal government to negotiate a trade deal that would benefit London. They were quite concerned about the impact of a potential future agreement on municipal procurement policy. Sub-national (ie provincial and municipal procurement) is a relatively new topic in international trade agreements for Canada. Although Canada is a signatory to the WTO's plurilateral (which means not all of the members of the WTO are signatories) Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA), that agreement only applies to procurement by the federal government, not provinces or municipalities. The more recent Canada-US Procurement Agreement, which allowed Canadian firms to be exempted from US Buy American provisions, included:

  • provincial and territorial procurement commitments under the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) for all provinces and territories (except Nunavut) in exchange for U.S. sub-federal GPA commitments;
  • temporary Canadian procurement commitments for construction projects for some provincial/territorial agencies not included in the GPA and a significant number of municipalities in exchange for the U.S. exempting Canada from the Buy American provisions of the Recovery Act for 7 programs of interest that receive funding from Recovery Act; and
  • a commitment to explore the scope for a long term government procurement agreement between Canada and the U.S., within the next 12 months, to deepen on a reciprocal basis, procurement commitments beyond those in the WTO GPA and NAFTA.

London was included in the list of municipalities in Ontario that these temporary procurement commitments applied to (see Part B - Market Access).

The Canada-US Procurement Agreement also includes these general exceptions:

3. Subject to the requirement that such measures are not applied in a manner that would constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination where the same conditions prevail or disguised restriction on international trade, nothing in this Appendix will be construed to prevent Provinces and Territories from imposing or enforcing measures inter alia:

  • necessary to protect public morals, order or safety;
  • necessary to protect human, animal or plant life or health;
  • necessary to protect intellectual property; or
  • relating to construction services of persons with disabilities, philanthropic institutions or prison labour.

It is also worth mentioning that the negotiated rules are reciprocal: if we agree to no longer discriminate against European companies in municipal procurement, then European municipalities will not discriminate against Canadian companies in their procurement decisions. The idea is to increase competition and thereby lower costs for government procurement. Increased market access to Europe could be very good for a London success story like construction company Ellis Don.

Now, regardless of whether you think an agreement between Canada and the European Union would be good or bad for Canada, Ontario or London, it is worth considering how international trade agreements actually function.

First, two or more national governments enter into negotiations with each other. Once they reach agreement, each national government is responsible for enacting or updating legislation to implement what was agreed. In federal states like Canada, to the extent that the agreement affects sub-national governments within the federation (provinces in Canada's case) or the municipalities within those provinces, the national government will need to negotiate with the provinces to implement the agreement. This is why provinces are involved in negotiating CETA.

Whether a municipality is "in" or "out" during negotiations means little. It is totally impractical to have individual municipalities involved in international trade negotiations -- just think how many cities at least the size of London there are in the European Union! (answer: there are roughly 100 such cities in Europe).

Regardless of what city council decided last night, the federal government and the provinces will continue negotiating a deal with their counterparts in the European Union. If they reach agreement and the federal government and provincial governments enact legislation and regulations to implement CETA, then London -- or any municipality in Canada, for that matter -- will not be able to opt-out of those federal or provincial laws and regulations.

At best, this "opting-out" decision is a negotiating tactic between the city and the Province of Ontario. At worst, it is just an roundabout attempt by the Council of Canadians to scupper the trade negotiations before an agreement is reached.

Globalization and free trade

March 5th, 2012

Glen Pearson, my former MP and a community leader here in London, recently blogged about globalization, free trade and the negative impact he believes both have had on Canada over the past few decades.

While I share some of Glen's concerns, I take issue with a few of his arguments:

  1. "Globalization and free trade were designed to give the stronger economic countries like Canada a global advantage."
    Wrong. The purpose of trade liberalization, especially multilateral trade agreements through the World Trade Organization, is to optimize the use of resources throughout the whole world. Since the WTO was established in 1995, the world's population has increased by 1.16 billion people (+20% from 5.68 billion to 6.84 billion). If we do not produce good and services as efficiently as possible, how can we accomodate this kind of population growth? There are lots of benefits to a negotiated, rules-based trading regime. Cheaper imports and a lower cost of living, in all countries, not just Canada, are two of these benefits.
  2. "government and economic leaders didn’t fully foresee that successful companies in the West would actually abandon their historic partnerships and move to those parts of the world offering cheap labour"

    On the contrary, governments and economic leaders did believe that firms would move jobs to lower cost jurisdictions. Moreover, Mike Moffatt has written at length about what's happened to manufacturing jobs in Canada. The main driver behind job losses in Canadian manufacturing is better technology. Check out this chart on GDP per unit of energy, a measure of how efficiently we are producing goods and services.We are producing much more for each unit of energy, which is a relatively good thing. As Mike observes, this is no comfort to folks who have lost their jobs in manufacturing here in Canada. But it's the truth.

  3. "While the middle-class in Brazil, India or China increase significantly, in North America we are headed in the opposite direction. Our standard of living has remained stagnant, with no sign of increase."

    This is the part of the argument that bothers me the most and is the most surprising to me. First of all, our standard of living in Canada, as measured by Gross National Income per capita, has increased by 24% since 1995 to $24,737 in 2010. Compare that to GNI per capita of $4,530 (Brazil), $2,355 (China) and $811 (India).

  4. Glen has dedicated a lot of his time to South Sudan and he knows firsthand the abject poverty people experience all over the world simply through the accident of where they were born. From a humanitarian perspective, I would like to see the GNI per capita continue to increase in Brazil, China and India. I certainly like the trends in the chart showing the percentage of people living on $2 a day or less in Brazil, China, India and Canada. You will notice that Canada doesn't even show up on the graph. If the cost of lifting literally hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty is some pressure on the Canadian middle class, I'm fine with that.

Despite these objections to his general argument, there are two areas where Glen and I likely agree.

First, our failure to price the full cost of oil encourages the distant production and international shipment of goods. A global carbon tax regime would better account for the real costs of oil consumption. It would also be very likely to reduce the extent of globalization within the trade regime that we have already negotiated.

Second, very wealthy countries with high and rising GNI per capita, like Canada, could do a better job of redistributing income. I believe a basic income supplement that brings all Canadians above the low income cut-off (LICO), with a tax back rate that minimizes disincentives to work, would be a good policy to adopt here in Canada. If it requires a modest increase in consumption or income taxes, I'm fine with that.

We are suffering through a very tumultuous economy in the past few years and it has hit some people much harder than others. And there are no shortage of real problems here in Canada and the wider world to address. But I believe our institutions of governance, at the local, provincial, national and international levels, continue to serve us well, and I remain optimistic about the future.

An unproductive speech

March 4th, 2010

Today's speech from the throne is heavy on regulatory initiatives. Here is a good summary. The related budget will possibly fill in gaps re: costs of the various initiatives and the overall fiscal outlook. In the meantime, let's look at what's notable in the speech from the throne.

Fiscal situation: Don't worry, be happy! No major cuts to spending or increases in revenue. Commitment to "protecting growth in transfers that directly benefit Canadians, such as pensions, health care and education." So what is left over? The 2008-2009 public accounts provide a bit of a guide, although the 2009-2010 accounts will show where the stimulus spending has been allocated. The 2008-2009 public accounts breakdown expenditures as follows:

  • Major transfers to persons (25.8%), major transfers to other governments (19.5%), other transfer payments (12.6%) and public debt charges (13.0%).
  • This leaves operating/ministries (25.7%) and crown corporations (3.7%) as areas for potential spending freezes/reductions.
  • National defence by itself accounts for $18.6 of $69.1 billion (or 27%) of the total operating category (excluding its small portion of other transfer payments).
  • Spending in all remaining ministries, excluding transfer payments, therefore accounts for only $50.5 billion (18.7%) of total government expenditures (25.7% less 6.9% for national defence).
  • As a percentage of this $50.4 billion, deficits over the next few years are projected to be 86%, 56%, 46% and 38%. Freezing spending growth on the $50.4 billion will not make a meaningful difference.
  • The government refers to eliminating "unnecessary appointments" to various boards, agencies and Crown Corporations. This is a token gesture, but perhaps indicative of the government's future plans for Crown Corporations, which account for $8 billion in spending.

The government's view on balancing the budget:

  • Step one: wind down stimulus spending within a year.
  • Step two: restrain spending (ie. salary freezes, overall departmental spending caps, etc)
  • Step three: hope the economy rebounds and more tax revenue is available.

What is the plan for national defence?

  • The combat mission in Afghanistan is scheduled to end in 2011.
  • Since the mission in Afghanistan began, national defence spending has increased by 82% from $10.4 billion to $19 billion. Roughly half of this increase occurred under Liberal governments; the other half occurred under the Conservative government.
  • The strength of the regular force has increased by 10.3% from 61,340 to 67,756 since 2003-2004 (still well below a recent historical peak of 75,000 in 1994).
  • The Canada First defence strategy, announced in 2008, committed the government to steady increases in defence spending, on the order of 2% annually, with a goal of $30 billion by 2027-2028.
  • Will national defence spending be reduced? Although this may seem unlikely, given the government's enthusiasm for the military, the Mulroney government talked a big game about the military as well. It ultimately cut spending. It remains to be seen whether the departmental freeze will apply to DND, which is the largest employer in the federal government and one of the largest in Canada.

Copyright & IP law to be "strengthened." This is likely code for greater regulatory/legal barriers to competition in creative industries. Rightsholders seek legal protections but who stands up for users and citizens? Conservatives need to be reminded of the virtues of creative destruction and individual freedom, apparently. I'm still somewhat optimistic that Tony Clement and especially James Moore will see the light.

Taxes: nary a mention of the increasing EI premiums, airport security tax increase or HST harmonization.

Environment: The government proposes very little in such an important policy area.

Trade: Government commits to pursuing bilateral FTAs, essentially giving up on the multilateral process through the WTO. This is bad news for Canada. Is it a surprise that there have been four ministers of international trade since Feb 2006?

Canada and WTO agriculture negotiations

May 2nd, 2006

You may be interested in the CATPRN trade policy brief that Bob Wolfe and I co-authored on the political coalitions in agriculture negotiations.

Canada loses on softwood lumber at WTO

April 3rd, 2006

For the above reasons, we reject Canada's claim that the United States has violated the fair comparison obligation provided for in the first sentence of Article 2.4 of the AD [anti-dumping] Agreement.

Emerson defection: Canada needs someone who knows what’s going on

February 7th, 2006

There is no shortage of outrage over David Emerson's defection to the Tories. Aaron is one of a few who hold out the possibility that there's more to this move than meets the eye. Perhaps the fact that the current round of WTO negotiations will likely end with the expiration of President Bush's Trade Promotion Authority in 2007 motivated Harper to recruit an intelligent, knowledgeable Minister of International Trade? Harper tapped Chuck Strahl for Agriculture & Agri-Food. He needs just as good or better for International Trade, and he found it.

I don't like how Emerson became a Tory cabinet minister, but there are plenty of reasons to justify it.

subsidising cows while milking the poor

October 17th, 2005

The story of Europe's pampered cows is a familiar one but always worth retelling. Each head of cattle in Europe gets a subsidy from the taxpayer worth $2.20 a day at a time when half the world's population - 3 billion people in all - scrapes by on an income of less that that.

Canada is not much better.

Good work, Prime Minister Martin

October 6th, 2005

I think Martin's speech today in New York was a good idea. Stressing the cost to American homebuilders is good strategy. Of course, like most dumping and subsidy issues, the losers on the American side are widely distributed and the winners on the American side are concentrated and organized. Softwood lumber can be solved in basically two ways: through government action in Canada (changing how we set stumpage fees) or through government action in the US. I'm not convinced that a speech in New York is reaching the key people on the US side, but I don't know the legislative geography on this issue very well. It won't make things worse.

china, U.S. and Alberta’s tar sands

July 8th, 2005

I've been paying attention to stories about China's interest in tar sands oil since my friend Erin started talking about it back in January. It seems as though the U.S. is paying attention now, too. I'm a skeptic when it comes to China and Canadian oil partly because of the strong U.S. interest in secure energy supplies from Canada.

can Tony Blair be Prime Minister of Canada, too?

June 30th, 2005

Stop giving cows money. Two Euros per day!